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THE FESTIVAL™ SUPPORTING WELLCHILD

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW

wednesday 17 March

There are four Grade 1 races to savour on Day Two of The Festival, including the feature – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. Last year's winner, Politologue will be hoping to be first past the post for the second year in a row. He faces stiff competition, including Willie Mullins’ Chacun Pour Soi.

 

Here, our experts are sharing their pick of the runners and riders throughout the day along with some insights on the key races.

Information correct as of 15 March 2021

 

Race 1 (1:20) Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

Race 2 (13:55) Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase

Race 4 (15:05) Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

Race 7 (16:50) Weatherbys Champion Bumper

 

Day Two of The Festival includes a race like no other- The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase. This year sees a rematch between Easysland and Grand National legend, Tiger Roll.

Our top picks for the day are:

 

1-2-3-Predictions-Day2-15Mar.png

Tote Placepot Selections

The Placepot is the first bet of the day for many. Here are our top picks to place in each of the first 6 races today:

 

Race 1 – Bravesmansgame / Bear Ghylls

Race 2 – Monkfish

Race 3 – Guard Your Dreams / Grand Roi/ Monte Cristo

Race 4 – First Flow / Nube Negra

Race 5 – Easysland / Potters Corner

Race 6 – Sky Pirate / Zanza

 

Suggested perm 2x1x3x2x2x2 = 48 bets @ 25p = £12.00 Total Stake

 

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(Grade 1) - 2 miles, 5 furlongs

 

1-2-3 PREDICTION:

(1) Bravemansgame 

(2) Gaillard Du Mesnil

(3) Bear Ghylls

 

RUNNERS TO WATCH

  • Bravemansgame (6 year old, P. Nicholls) – Completed his hattrick with an impressive 10 length win in the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury in December. Going into this year’s Festival Paul Nicholls has 45 Festival winners but has never won this race, Bravemansgame could change that.
  • Gaillard Du Mesnil (5 year old, W.P. Mullins) – Willie Mullins has 4 wins and 7 places in the last 13 years in this race and this looks like his main chance to win again. Gaillard Du Mesnil eased to a 5 length win in a Leopardstown Grade 1 in February. Big chance.
  • Bear Ghylls (6 year old, N. Martin) – Unbeaten in 3 hurdle races this season including a comprehensive 5 length win in an Exeter Handicap last time out. Plenty of potential but this is obviously his toughest assignment. One to watch.

 

LAST 5 WINNERS

2020 – Envoi Allen (4/7 F)       Age 6   Trainer: G. Elliott

2019 – City Island (8/1)             Age 6   Trainer: M. Brassil

2018 – Samcro (8/11 F)              Age 6   Trainer: G. Elliott

2017 – Willoughby Court (14/1) Age 6   Trainer: B. Pauling

2016 – Yorkhill (3/1)                   Age 6   Trainer: W.P. Mullins

 

HOT TRAINERS

Willie Mullins – (4 wins and 7 places in the last 13 years). Runner: Gaillard Du Mesnil

 

FOLLOW THE FAVOURITES?

A mixed record for favourites – The favourite has won 4 of the last 10, winning twice in the last 3 years, 2020 Envoi Allen 4/7 and 2018 Samcro 8/11. The largest priced winner in the last 13 years was Willoughby Court (14/1) in 2017.

 

AGE STATS

6 year olds are best – 9 of the last 10 winners were 6 years old. In the history of this race (first run in 1971), only 1 horse over the age of 6 has won: 7 year old French Holly in 1998.

 

UK v IRELAND

Ireland have dominated in recent years, winning 7 of the last 8. In the past 20 running’s the score is Ireland 11 v UK 9 based on trainer location.

 

DID YOU KNOW?

Just 2 of the last 10 winners had run at Cheltenham previously – 2020 Envoi Allen and 2013 The New One.
10 of the last 12 winners had won their previous race.
9 of the last 12 winners had won at least 1 Grade 1-3 race.
11 of the last 12 winners had won at least 2 races that season.

 

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(Grade 1) - 3 miles, 80 yards

 

1-2-3 PREDICTION:

(1) Monkfish

(2) Sporting John

(3) The Big Breakaway

 

RUNNERS TO WATCH

  • Monkfish (7 years old, W.P. Mullins) – Unbeaten over fences including two hugely impressive Grade 1 wins round Leopardstown. Willie Mullins has 3 wins in this race in the last 17 years, the latest Don Poli in 2015. The one to beat.
  • Sporting John (6 years old, P. Hobbs) – Posted a much-improved performance in heavy going in a Sandown Grade 1 in February, winning by 4 lengths going away in the 2m4f event. The extra half mile here should suit and may be a surprise package.

 

LAST 5 WINNERS

2020 – Champ (4/1)                     Age 8    Trainer: N. Henderson

2019 – Topofthegame (4/1)          Age 7    Trainer: P. Nicholls

2018 – Presenting Percy (5/2 F)   Age 7    Trainer: P.G. Kelly

2017 – Might Bite (7/2 F)              Age 8     Trainer N. Henderson

2016 – Blaklion (8/1)                      Age 7    Trainer N. Twiston-Davies

 

HOT TRAINERS

Nicky Henderson – Won 4 of the last 16 running’s including 2 wins and a second in the last 4 years. He won with Champ last year.

 

FOLLOW THE FAVOURITES?

Mixed results for the market leaders – 6 winning favourites in the last 20 running’s, the latest being Presenting Percy in 2018 at 5/2. The biggest priced winner in the last 6 years was Blaklion at 8/1 in 2016.

 

AGE STATS

7 year olds have performed best – 15 of the last 20 winners have been 7 years old. No horse older than 8 and only 2 horses under 7 have won in that time.

 

UK v IRELAND

In the last 20 running’s UK lead 13 – 7 v Ireland including winning the last 2 years.

 

DID YOU KNOW?

9 of the last 10 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham.
5 of the last 10 winners had a least 1 previous win at Cheltenham.
5 of the last 10 winners had won their previous race.
1 of the last 10 winners had never won a Chase previously, Topofthegame in 2019.
7 of the last 10 winners had previously won a Grade 1-3 race.

 

Backing Monkfish to continue his unbeaten run?

 

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(Grade 1) - 1 miles, 7 furlongs, 199 yards

 

1-2-3 PREDICTION:

(1) First Flow

(2) Chacun Pour Soi

(3) Nube Negra

 

RUNNERS TO WATCH

  • Chacun Pour Soi (9 year old, W.P. Mullins) – A victory in this race has eluded Willie Mullins so far but Chacun Pour Soi gives him a great opportunity. Three impressive wins (2x Grade 1, 1x Grade 2) this season the latest by 8 lengths in the Grade 1 Dublin Chase at Leopardstown puts him in contention. Respected.
  • First Flow (9 year old, K. Bailey) – The improving First Flow won impressively going away from last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Politologue by 7 lengths in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase at Ascot in January to make it 6 wins in a row over fences. A repeat of that performance would see him go close.
  • Nube Negra (7 year old, D. Skelton) - 3 wins and 2 seconds in 5 runs since going chasing, including an impressive win over Altior in the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton on his only start of the season. Needs to improve again, but there is plenty of room for it.
  • Politologue (10 year old, P. Nicholls) – Won this race decisively last year but was beaten into second comfortably last time out by First Flow. No one has won more Queen Mother Chases than Paul Nicholls (6) but it’s doubtful Politologue will make it 7.

 

LAST 5 WINNERS

2020 – Politologue (6/1)       Age 9     Trainer: P. Nicholls
2019 – Altior (4/11 F)             Age 9     Trainer: N. Henderson
2018 – Altior (Evens F)         Age 8      Trainer: N. Henderson
2017 – Special Tiara (11/1)      Age 10    Trainer: H. De Bromhead
2016 – Sprinter Sacre (5/1)    Age 10    Trainer: N. Henderson

 

HOT TRAINERS

Paul Nicholls – Won 5 of the last 17 renewals, including last year with Politologue.
N. Henderson and P. Nicholls hold the record of most wins in the Queen Mother Chase – 6.

 

FOLLOW THE FAVOURITES?

The favourite has won 8 of the last 20 runnings, including 2 of the last 3. 13 of the last 20 winners have been priced 5/1 or shorter.

 

AGE STATS

8 to 10 year olds are best with 9 of the last 11 winners in this age range, including the last 5 winners. Only 1 horse over the age of 10 has won since 1977, the great Moscow Flyer in 2005.

 

UK v IRELAND

The score is UK 14 v 6 Ireland in the past 20 running’s, with the UK winning 8 of the last 9.

 

DID YOU KNOW?

10 of the last 10 winners had at least 2 previous runs at Cheltenham.
6 of the last 10 winners had at least 2 previous victories at Cheltenham.
10 of the last 10 winners had at least 1 previous win in a Grade 1.
4 of the last 16 winners had won this race previously.
5 of the last 12 winners had won the Clarence House Chase at Ascot on their previous start: First Flow won this year’s renewal.
3 Queen Mother Chase Victories – Only Badsworth Boy (1983, 1984, 1985) has won this race 3 times. Altior will attempt to equal the record.

 

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(Grade 1) - 2 miles, 87 yards

 

1-2-3 PREDICTION:

(1) Grangee

(2) Kilcruit

(3) Elle Est Belle

 

RUNNERS TO WATCH

  • Grangee (5 year old, W.P. Mullins) – Won his latest start in a Grade 2 Bumper at Leopardstown at 18/1 with the more fancied Willie Mullins’ odds on favourite Brandy Love back in third. Mullins’ last 5 winners of this race have been priced 11/1, 25/1, 25/1, 16/1 & 12/1. Grangee has the potential to provide a shock.
  • Kilcruit (6 year old, W.P. Mullins) – An impressive 12 length winner of a Grade 2 Bumper in February made it 2 wins from 2 this season. Willie Mullins has an impressive record in this race with Kilcruit his likely first string.
  • Elle Est Belle (6 year old, D. Skelton) – Dead heated first in a listed Bumper at Cheltenham in November. She would need to improve to win here, but there’s no reason why she won’t.
  • I Like To Move It (4 year old, N. Twiston-Davies) – Two easy wins were followed up by a good second in a listed Bumper at Newbury last month. Nigel Twiston-Davies won this race in 2016 with Ballyandy and I Like To Move It gives him another chance of success.

 

LAST 5 WINNERS

2020 – Ferny Hollow (11/1)    Age 5     Trainer: W.P. Mullins

2019 – Envoi Allen (2/1 F)      Age 5     Trainer: G. Elliott

2018 – Relegate (25/1)           Age 5     Trainer: W.P. Mullins

2017 – Fayonagh (7/1)            Age 6     Trainer: G. Elliott

2016 – Ballyandy (5/1)            Age 5     Trainer: N. Twiston-Davies

 

HOT TRAINERS

Willie Mullins – 7 wins in the last 20 renewals, including 2 wins (Ferny Hollow 2020, Relegate 2018) and a second in the past 3 years: Runner Kilcruit.

 

FOLLOW THE FAVOURITES?

Outsiders must be considered – Just 4 favourites have won in last 20 running’s, while there’s been 11 winners priced 11/1 or bigger in that period.
6 of Willie Mullins’ 7 winners in that time were priced 11/1 or bigger, including Relegate 2018 & Briar Hill 2013, both were 25/1 shots.

 

AGE STATS

5 and 6 year olds are best – 19 of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or 6 including the last 10 winners. Cue Card in 2010 the only 4-year-old to win in that time.

 

UK v IRELAND

Irish domination – the score is UK 5 v Ireland 15 for the last 20 races, with Ireland winning the last 4 renewals.

 

DID YOU KNOW?

12 of the last 12 winners had won at least 1 race that season.
8 of the last 10 winners had never run at Cheltenham previously.
12 of the last 12 winners had won their previous race.
9 of the last 10 winners had at least 2 Bumper runs previously.
5 of the last 10 winners had at least 2 Bumper wins previously.

 

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