randox topham handicap chase - RACE GUIDE AND STATS
Race 5 (16:05) – 2 miles 5 furlongs 19 yards
1-2-3 PREDICTION
(1) Ibleo
(2) Senior Citizen
(3) Morning Vicar
RUNNERS TO WATCH:
- Two For Gold (8 years old, K. Bailey) – Won the competitive Warwick Castle Handicap Chase in February and followed up with a decent third in Kelso’s Premier Chase last month. Chances.
- Modus (11 years old, P. Nicholls) – Modus’ last 2 runs have been at Aintree, a fine third over course and distance in the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase in December followed a good win round the Mildmay course in November.
- Livelovelaugh (11 years old, W.P. Mullins) – Willie Mullins’ Irish raider ran a decent race when 11th in the 2019 Grand National and has had a consistent campaign in Ireland this season, placing in his last 3 runs. Respected.
- Senior Citizen (8 years old, A. King) – A staying on fourth in the competitive Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury last month, gives Senior Citizen a chance here. He has experience over the National fences following a seventh place finish in the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase in December.
- Morning Vicar (8 years old, N. Henderson) – Faded into eighth in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham over 3m2f last month; the drop back to 2m5f will suit. Nicky Henderson has a fantastic recent record in the Topham with 3 winners and 3 places in recent years.
LAST 5 WINNERS:
2019 – Cadmium 8/1 Age 7 Trainer: W.P. Mullins
2018 – Ultragold 14/1 Age 10 Trainer: C. Tizzard
2017 – Ultragold 50/1 Age 9 Trainer: C. Tizzard
2016 – Eastlake 22/1 Age 10 Trainer: J. O’Neill
2015 – Rajdhani Express 10/1 Age 8 Trainer: N. Henderson
FOLLOW THE FORM:
None of the last 10 winners had won their previous race, while 5 of the last 6 winners had run at that year’s Cheltenham Festival.
Form over fences is necessary – The last 10 winners all had previous form winning at least once over fences, with 9 of those winners having at least 3 chase wins.
HOT TRAINER:
Nicky Henderson– In the past 7 running’s Henderson has had 3 wins and 3 places.
AGE STATS:
9 to 10 year olds are best – 12 of the last 20 winners were aged 9 or 10, but don’t discount younger or older horses. Gwanako was 5 years old when winning in 2008 while Always Waining won his third Topham at the age of 11.
HANDICAP RATING:
Look down the field for the winner – 7 of the last 10 winners were rated 142 or lower.
FOLLOW THE FAVOURITE?
A terrible race for favourites – No outright favourite has won in the past 20 running’s, with just 1 joint favourite winning in this time.
Keep an eye on the outsiders – There have been 6 winners priced 22/1 or bigger since the turn of the century, including 2 priced at 50/1.
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