Day Three Preview and Tips

(Grade 1) - 2 miles, 3 furlongs, 168 yards

1-2-3 PREDICTION:

(1) Envoi Allen

(2) Chatham Street Lad

(3) Shan Blue

RUNNERS TO WATCH

• Envoi Allen (7 year old, H De Bromhead) – Some would say this race has had Envoi Allen’s name written all over it for some time. Already a two-time Cheltenham Festival winner (Champion Bumper 2019, Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 2020) and unbeaten in all 11 career starts including three easy wins over the bigger obstacles this season. Likely to be odds on at the off, and for good reason.
• Chatham Street Lad (9 year old, M Winters) – Another Irish challenger who won over course and distance in December and looked very good in doing so. That previous Cheltenham win was a Grade 3 and he will need to up his game in Grade 1 company here.
• Shan Blue (7 year old, D Skelton) – Likely to be the leading contender for the home team having captured the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. Lost little in defeat on his most recent start in heavy ground at Sandown. Will need a career best effort to challenge the Irish contingent in this race.
• Chantry House (7 year old, N Henderson) – Two wins from three chase starts so far but yet to run in a race anyway near this standard. Commands respect as trained by Nicky Henderson, who has a fantastic record at the Festival.

LAST 5 WINNERS

2020 – Samcro (4/1).               Age 8.    Trainer: G Elliott

2019 – Defi du Seuil (3/1).        Age 6.    Trainer: P Hobbs

2018 – Shattered Love (4/1).    Age 7.    Trainer: G Elliott

2017 – Yorkhill (6/4).                Age 7.     Trainer: W Mullins

2016 – Black Hercules (4/1).     Age 7.     Trainer: W Mullins

HOT TRAINERS

Willie Mullins - 4 wins in the last 9 years.

FOLLOW THE FAVOURITES?

Favourites have a good recent record - 4 favourites (incl. 1 co fav) have won this race in the last 6 years. Only one horse at double figure odds has won in the last 10 years – Benefficient at 20/1 in 2013.

AGE STATS

6 and 7 year olds are best – Last year was the first time a horse not aged 6 or 7 won the race (Samcro aged 8) so younger horses tend to do best in this race.

UK v IRELAND

The Irish trainers have dominated this race in the last decade with 8 winners. Ireland 8 vs UK 2. .

DID YOU KNOW?

7 of the last 10 winners won last time out ­– and 9 of the last 10 winners had raced at the Cheltenham Festival previously, 5 of which won.

Will Envoi Allen bag a third Festival win? Place your bet at Tote.co.uk

(Grade 1) - 2 miles, 4 furlongs, 127 yards

1-2-3 PREDICTION:

(1) Mister Fisher

(2) Min

(3) Imperial Aura

RUNNERS TO WATCH

• Allaho (7 year old, W Mullins) – A close 3rd in an exhilarating RSA Chase at The Festival last year and highly tried in top class races since. Yet to win a Grade 1 race but still young and open to improvement.
• Min (10 year old, W Mullins) – A thrilling winner of this race last year in what was his first win at The Festival in four attempts (outside the places only once). Won a top quality renewal of the Grade 1 John Durkan Chase in December before jumping poorly in another Irish Grade 1 in early February. An obvious contender but possibly vulnerable to a younger rival.
• Imperial Aura (8 year old, K Bailey) – Rattled off a hat-trick of chasing wins in 2020 culminating in a Grade 2 success at Ascot. One run in 2021 where a bad mistake saw him fall at the 2nd obstacle. Will need to recapture his best form which has seen him finish 1st or 2nd in three visits to Cheltenham so far.
• Saint Calvados (8 year old, H Whittington) – A return to two and a half miles looks ideal after having his stamina stretched on his last two outings. Often runs with credit at Cheltenham (a close 2^nd in this last year) and could take home some place money if at his best.
• Mister Fisher (7 year old, N Henderson) – Jumped well when winning a Grade 2 chase at Cheltenham in December in what was a career best effort. A progressive sort whose chance would be boosted if the going is described as good.

LAST 5 WINNERS

2020 – Min (2/1).                         Age 9.     Trainer: W Mullins
2019 – Frodon (9/2).                   Age 7.     Trainer: P Nicholls
2018 – Balko Des Flos (8/1).        Age 7.     Trainer: H De Bromhead
2017 – Un De Sceaux (7/4 Fav).  Age 9.     Trainer: W Mullins
2016 – Vautour (1/1 Fav).             Age 7.     Trainer: W Mullins

HOT TRAINERS

Willie Mullins has won this race three times in the last five years. This year he has several possible contenders including Min, Allaho and Melon.

FOLLOW THE FAVOURITES?

Mixed results for favourites – 5 winning favourites (incl. 1 joint fav) in the 16 runnings of the race. In that time only 2 horse priced above 8/1 have won.

AGE STATS

Lucky for some – horses aged 7 have won 5 of the last 10 renewals.

UK v IRELAND

12 of the last 16 renewals have been won by UK based trainers, since the inception of this race. UK 12 vs Ireland 4. However Irish trainers have won this race 4 times in the last 5 years, suggesting the tide is turning.

DID YOU KNOW?

13 of the last 16 winners of this race had been successful at Cheltenham previously.

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(Grade 1) - 2 miles, 7 furlongs, 213 yards

1-2-3 PREDICTION:

(1) Sire Du Berlais

(2) Paisley Park

(3) Lisnagar Oscar

RUNNERS TO WATCH

• Paisley Park (9 year old, E Lavelle) – Dominated the staying hurdle scene in 2019 which peaked in winning this race but could only manage 7th when 4/6 favourite last year. A leading contender on his best form, but may be vulnerable to others now aged 9.
• Sire Du Berlais (9 year old, G Elliott) – A back to back winner of the Pertemps Final at The Festival and has an excellent record around Cheltenham. Would require a career best effort to win this but certainly not ruled out.
• Lisnagar Oscar (8 year old, R Curtis) – Caused a shock when winning this race in 2020 at 50/1. Has not won in three starts since but seems to save his best for Cheltenham with form of 1,3,5,2 on his four runs here. Could be underestimated in the market once again.
• Vinndication (8 year old, K Bailey) – A very interesting runner having raced over fences on his last eight starts. Returns to hurdles for the first time in over three years. Stable confidence appears high and this horse has been well supported in the betting markets in the last few days.

LAST 5 WINNERS

2020 – Lisnagar Oscar (50/1).        Age 7.      Trainer: R Curtis
2019 – Paisley Park (11/8 Fav).        Age 7.      Trainer: E Lavelle
2018 – Penhill (12/1).                        Age 7.      Trainer: W Mullins
2017 – Nichols Canyon (10/1).         Age 7.      Trainer: W Mullins
2016 – Thistlecrack (1/1 Fav).          Age 8.      Trainer: C Tizzard

HOT TRAINERS

Willie Mullins has an excellent recent record, with 2 winners and 2 thirds in the past 4 years.
Paul Nicholls has won this race 4 times, the last time was 2012.

FOLLOW THE FAVOURITES?

Oppose the favourite - Only 2 winning favourites in the past 8 years.

AGE STATS

The four most recent winners were all aged 7 and 28 of the last 31 winners were aged 6, 7 or 8.

UK v IRELAND

14 of the last 17 renewals have been won by a UK based trainer. UK 14 vs Ireland 3.

DID YOU KNOW?

10.6/1 is the average SP of the winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle in the last 10 years. This includes winners at 50/1, 14/1 and 12/1.
12/1 and 10/1 were the SPs of Willie Mullins’s last two winners of this race. The Irish supremo is more accustomed to shorter price winners at The Festival but don’t be put off if he saddles one at a bigger price in this race.
15 of the last 18 winners finished 1st or 2nd in their most recent start before The Festival.
6 of the last 12 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on their last run. Paisley Park won this season’s renewal.

Lisnagar Oscar’s Stayers’ Hurdle victory in 2020 paid £85.70 on the Tote versus an SP of 50/1.

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