Grand National Preview

Grand National day at Aintree racecourse is one of the world’s most famous racing days, watched by around 10m people in Britain alone. 

 

Racing fans will be licking their lips at the prospect of watching 40 runners attack the 30 unique jumps over the marathon trip of approximately 4.25 miles. Here we share our 1-2-3 tips for the big race on the card alongside some pen portraits of the leading runners. We also include a number of stats which may help with picking the winners this year.

 

Information is correct as of 29^th March 2022.   

 

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Grand National - Race Guide 

 

(17:15) – Randox Grand National Handicap Chase - 4 miles 2 furlongs 74 yards

 

1-2-3 Prediction:   (1) Delta Work                 (2) Kildisart                        (3) Any Second Now   

                      

Runners to Watch:

• Any Second Now (10 year old, T.Walsh) – An interesting runner for owner JP McManus, trained in Ireland by Ted Walsh. Finished a close 3^rd last year having looked dangerous most of the way. He is likely to have primed for this race again by his shrewd connections.

 

• Burrows Saint (9 year old, W.Mullins) – He looks a leading contender from the powerful Willie Mullins yard in Ireland. He finished 4^th last year when a bit short on experience, although he had won the Irish Grand National in 2019. He looks to have been laid out for this race again and may improve now he has more chase experience under his belt (10 chase runs now).

 

• Minella Times (9 year old, H.De Bromhead) – Another Irish raider and another owned by JP McManus. Sure to be popular in the betting as he won last year under leading female jockey Rachael Blackmore. He hasn’t shown much form in two subsequent races but is sure to be well prepared for a repeat bid here.

 

• Delta Work (9 years old, G.Elliott) – Another leading contender trained in Ireland. A former Grade 1 Chase winner who could be well handicapped on his old form. He won the Cross Country Chase on his most recent start at Cheltenham, which has proven to be an ideal prep race in recent seasons.

 

• Escaria Ten (8 years old, G.Elliott) – Looks potentially well handicapped having been a close 3^rd behind Gold Cup contender Galvin at Cheltenham last season. However he has had a long layoff since then and may lack experience, with only 7 starts over fences.

 

• Snow Leopardess (10 years old, C.Longsdon) – The leading British trained contender who highlighted his credentials when winning the Becher Chase over the Aintree fences in December, jumping superbly. He should go well here again although may prefer soft ground.

 

• Enjoy D’allen (8 years old, C.Murphy) – Another Irish trained runner representing successful owner JP McManus. A promising 3^rd in the Irish Grand National last season and he looks to have been carefully prepared for this race since then.

 

• Kildisart (10 years old, B.Pauling) – Has long appealed as a likely sort for this race and was fancied in 2020 when the race was cancelled due to Covid. He has been lightly raced since but put in a promising run on his recent prep run and could reward each way backers.

 

• Discorama (9 year old, P.Nolan) – Has long appealed as the sort for long distance chases like this. He shaped well in the race last season when 7^th, jumping and moving well for a long way before fading late on. He ran a nice prep run last time at Fairyhouse and could go well here again at an each way price.

                                           

                                                                                         

Last 6 winners:

2021 – Minella Times 11/1           Age 8                    Trainer: H.De Bromhead

2019 – Tiger Roll 4/1 Fav               Age 9                    Trainer: G.Elliott

2018 – Tiger Roll 10/1                    Age 8                    Trainer: G.Elliott

2017 – One For Arthur 14/1         Age 8                    Trainer: L.Russell

2016 – Rule The World 33/1         Age 9                    Trainer: M.Morris

2015 – Many Clouds 25/1             Age 8                    Trainer: O.Sherwood

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Stats and Pointers:

 

Chase experience is vital:

All of the past 20 winners of this race had raced at least 10 times over fences, showing that experience in chases was important. This year that could be an issue for Escaria Ten with only 7 starts over the larger obstacles.  

 

Hot Trainers:

Irish trainers were in great form at the Cheltenham Festival last month, winning 18 of the 28 races.

Irish trainers have also won 4 of the last 5 Grand Nationals too. Leading Irish contenders this year include Any Second Now, Delta Work, Enjoy D’allen and Escaria Ten. 

 

Age Stats:

For 20 of the last 25 running’s the winner has been aged between 8 and 10.

There may be some 7 year olds this year, who historically have struggled perhaps through a lack of experience. This may count against Noble Yeats and Coko Beach.

Equally, there may also be some 12 and 13 year olds who may lack the necessary speed and zest required. This may count against Anibale Fly and Blaklion.

 

Mid-weights rule:

For 16 out of the last 20 running’s the horse has carried a weight in the range of 10 stone 6lbs to 11 stone 6lbs.  

This year this could be an issue for leading contenders Minella Times (11 stone 9 lbs), Delta Work (11 stone 8 lbs) and Any Second Now (11 stone 7 lbs). 

Last years winner, Minella Times, carried a low weight to victory of 10 stone 3 lbs.

 

Favourite’s fate:

In the past 20 running’s, the clear favourite has only won twice, with victory also going to two joint favourites.

Outsiders can surprise and seven winners in this period have been returned at odds of 25/1 or bigger with the longest price winner being Auroras Encore (66-1) in 2013.

 

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